ELECTION
RESULTS
IN DELHI
AN
ANALYSIS
Delhi
has voted for a hung assembly with BJP combine getting 32 seats and AAP getting
28 seats. Neither of them is willing to seek or take support from Congress or
any others. AAP’s decision to play the role of constructive Opposition
(whatever it means) isn’t particularly appealing to BJP, to sit in Governance.
Will the LG invite BJP or not – to form
Government? Technically, he should. But, there is no knowing how the Congress
appointed Governor will look at matters. Even if he invites BJP, he will be
asking Dr. Harsha Vardhan to prove majority on the floor of the assembly. Will
AAP and Congress vote for or against the motion? Can they say – they have
confidence in BJP Government? They can’t generally be expected to say –
YES. If they say NO, the BJP Government falls on day One. So, what is the
point of BJP forming Government? Therefore, it is sensible for BJP to stay away
– and seek Delhi to vote them in decisively this time. Therefore, a re-poll is
the best solution. But, if the re-poll throws up the same combination yet
again, then Delhi’s Governance issue will remain a suspense for a long time to
come.
Personally, I would advise BJP and AAP,
especially the AAP, to shed their
animosities towards each other – and form a Government together – with a common
Minimum Program and ensure Good Governance at Delhi. With Arvind speaking the
way he does about BJP, this may prove difficult. Clean Politics is GOOD. But, Arvind
needs some flexibility even while insisting on clean Politics. He can’t be
saying – my way or the High way. In that case, will Delhi be forced to choose
his “my way” or, choose the High way of Modi? Whom will Delhi favour next time?
Let us make an analysis. The overall Position of seats won is a follows :
Party - Seats Won
B.J.P. - 31
I.N.C. - 8
Janata
Dal (U)- 1
S.A.D. - 1
A.A.P. - 28
Independent - 1
BJP WINNERS – AN ANALYSIS :
BJP
has won over (i) its nearest AAP
candidates in 18 constituencies; (ii) its nearest Congress candidates in 9
constituencies (iii) its nearest BSP candidates in 2 constituencies (iv) its
nearest Indian National Lok Dal candidate in 1 constituency and (iv) its
nearest Independent candidate in 1 constituency.
The
ally of BJP, Shiromani Akali Dal has won over its nearest Congress candidate in
one constituency. Totally, BJP has won in 31 constituencies and SAD in 1 (one)
– making a total of 32 for BJP alliance.
The
following table indicates the 18 constituencies where BJP was the winning party
and AAP the trailing party. The Highest Margin is 48,526 for Anil Jha of BJP over
Rajan Prakash of AAP in Kirari constituency and the least is 326 for Anil Kumar
Sharma over Shazia Ilmi Malik. 6 BJP candidates have scored over 10,000 votes
Majority – over their nearest AAP candidates. 3 have scored over 5,000 Majority
over AAP. 9 have scored below 5000 Majority over AAP. Of them, 2 have scored
less than 2000 Majority over AAP candidates. This means that the last 9 + 2
constituencies need to be analyzed by BJP with greater care on how to win these
constituencies (in case of a Re-Poll) with greater majorities, even while
strengthening the vote Bank in other constituencies. These 11 constituencies
are obviously more vulnerable to an AAP attack.
|
Constituency
|
Leading Candidate
|
Leading
Party
|
Trailing Candidate
|
Trailing Party
|
Margin
|
|
KIRARI
|
ANIL JHA
|
BJP
|
RAJAN PRAKASH
|
AAP
|
48526
|
|
RITHALA
|
KULWANT RANA
|
BJP
|
HARISH AWASTHI
|
AAP
|
25826
|
|
BAWANA
|
GUGAN SINGH
|
BJP
|
MANOJ
|
AAP
|
25639
|
|
MOTI NAGAR
|
SUBHASH SACHDEVA
|
BJP
|
KULDEEP SINGH CHANNA
|
AAP
|
16021
|
|
ROHTAS NAGAR
|
JITENDER KUMAR
|
BJP
|
MUKESH HOODA
|
AAP
|
14943
|
|
ADARSH NAGAR
|
RAM KISHAN SINGHAL
|
BJP
|
JAGDEEP RANA
|
AAP
|
10056
|
|
PALAM
|
DHARM DEV SOLANKI
|
BJP
|
BHAVNA GAUR
|
AAP
|
8372
|
|
WAZIRPUR
|
DR MAHANDER NAGPAL
|
BJP
|
PRAVEEN KUMAR
|
AAP
|
5574
|
|
DWARKA
|
PARDUYMN RAJPUT
|
BJP
|
RAVI KUMAR SURYAN
|
AAP
|
5197
|
|
MEHRAULI
|
PARVESH SAHIB SINGH
|
BJP
|
NARINDER SINGH SEJWAL
|
AAP
|
4564
|
|
MATIALA
|
RAJESH GAHLOT
|
BJP
|
GULAB SINGH
|
AAP
|
4002
|
|
KARAWAL NAGAR
|
MOHAN SINGH BISHT
|
BJP
|
KAPIL MISHRA
|
AAP
|
3083
|
|
TRI NAGAR
|
NAND KISHORE GARG
|
BJP
|
JITENDER SINGH TOMAR
|
AAP
|
2809
|
|
JANAKPURI
|
PROF. JAGDISH MUKHI
|
BJP
|
RAJESH RISHI
|
AAP
|
2644
|
|
BIJWASAN
|
SAT PRAKASH RANA
|
BJP
|
DEVINDER KUMAR SEHRAWAT
|
AAP
|
2414
|
|
KALKAJI
|
HARMEET SINGH
|
BJP
|
DHARAMBIR SINGH
|
AAP
|
2044
|
|
RAJINDER NAGAR
|
R.P.SINGH
|
BJP
|
VIJENDER GARG VIJAY
|
AAP
|
1796
|
|
R K PURAM
|
ANIL KUMAR SHARMA
|
BJP
|
SHAZIA ILMI MALIK
|
AAP
|
326
|
In
the following 9 constituencies, BJP is the winning party and the Indian
national Congress is the trailing party. Dr.Harsha Vardhan, the BJP CM
candidate won with a Huge Margin of over 43,150 votes from Krishna Nagar
constituency, over his nearest rival from Congress, Dr.Vinod Kumar Monga. The
lowest Margin is 4507 in Babarpur constituency. 6 BJP candidates have won with
over 10,000 Majority over their Congress rivals; 2 have won with over 5000
Majority and 1 with less than 5000 Majority. Can BJP reasonably expect to win all
these again in a re-poll? While the mood of the electorate in these
constituencies can become more anti-congress, these votes can swing in favour
of BJP or AAP. BJP may have greater pull, as its vote bank is likely to remain
unshaken. It is to be assumed that the Congress vote bank will get eroded
further in case of a Re-Poll.
|
KRISHNA NAGAR
|
DR. HARSH VARDHAN
|
BJP
|
DR VINOD KUMAR MONGA
|
INC
|
43150
|
|
CHHATARPUR
|
BRAHM SINGH TANWAR
|
BJP
|
BALRAM TANWAR
|
INC
|
16124
|
|
SHAHDARA
|
JITENDER SINGH SHUNTY
|
BJP
|
NARENDER NATH
|
INC
|
15117
|
|
BADARPUR
|
RAMBIR SINGH BIDHURI
|
BJP
|
RAM SINGH NETAJI
|
INC
|
13854
|
|
GHONDA
|
SAHAB SINGH CHAUHAN
|
BJP
|
BHISHAM SHARMA
|
INC
|
11932
|
|
NANGLOI JAT
|
MANOJ KUMAR SHOKEEN
|
BJP
|
DR. BIJENDER SINGH
|
INC
|
11015
|
|
VISHWAS NAGAR
|
OM PRAKASH SHARMA
|
BJP
|
NASEEB SINGH
|
INC
|
7799
|
|
UTTAM NAGAR
|
PAWAN SHARMA
|
BJP
|
MUKESH SHARMA
|
INC
|
6346
|
|
BABARPUR
|
NARESH GAUR
|
BJP
|
ZAKIR KHAN
|
INC
|
4507
|
Shiromani Akali dal, BJP’s
ally, has won over the Congress rival in one seat as below. Considering the
over 10,000 majority, this will most likely remain with BJP+.
|
RAJOURI GARDEN
|
MANJINDER SINGH SIRSA
|
SAD
|
A DHANWATI CHANDELA A
|
INC
|
11008
|
The
following table indicates the 4 constituencies where BJP was the winning party but
neither Congress nor AAP was the trailing Party. The Highest Margin is 23545
against BSP and the least is 1922 against an Independent. BJP winning against
an Independent with such a thin margin must
be surprising to itself. This constituency is therefore vulnerable for
BJP.
|
GOKALPUR
|
RANJEET SINGH
|
BJP
|
SURENDRA KUMAR
|
Independent
|
1922
|
|
NAJAFGARH
|
AJEET SINGH KHARKHARI
|
BJP
|
BHARAT SINGH
|
Indian National Lok Dal
|
9768
|
|
NERELA
|
NEEL DAMAN KHATRI
|
BJP
|
VIRENDER
|
Bahujan Samaj Party
|
23545
|
|
TUGHLAKABAD
|
RAMESH BIDHURI
|
BJP
|
SAHI RAM
|
Bahujan Samaj Party
|
5946
|
AAP WINNERS : AN ANALYSIS :
In
the following 23 constituencies, AAP is the winning party and BJP is the
trailing party. Of this 23, one is over SAD, the BJP ally – in the Hari Nagar
constituency. The Highest Margin is 17,685 and the least is 355. 7 AAP
candidates have won with margins of over 10,000 votes. 6 have won with over
5000 votes Margin. 4 have won with less than 5000 votes margin – all over the
BJP rivals. These 6+4 = 10
constituencies are more vulnerable to a BJP onslaught. Congress Vote Bank
getting eroded further, Both BJP and AAP will need to strengthen their base and
make inroads into that of Congress Votes in all these places, to secure for
themselves clearer wins.
|
TRILOKPURI
|
RAJU
|
AAP
|
SUNIL KUMAR
|
BJP
|
17685
|
|
DEOLI
|
PRAKASH
|
AAP
|
GAGAN RANA @ GAGAN SHRI LAL PRADHAN
|
BJP
|
17108
|
|
GREATER KAILASH
|
SAURABH BHARADWAJ
|
AAP
|
AJAY KUMAR MALHOTRA
|
BJP
|
13092
|
|
AMBEDKAR NAGAR
|
ASHOK KUMAR
|
AAP
|
KHUSHI RAM CHUNAR
|
BJP
|
11670
|
|
PATPARGANJ
|
MANISH SISODIA
|
AAP
|
NAKUL BHARDWAJ
|
BJP
|
11476
|
|
SHALIMAR BAGH
|
BANDANA KUMARI
|
AAP
|
RAVINDER NATH BANSAL
|
BJP
|
10651
|
|
BURARI
|
SANJEEV JHA
|
AAP
|
SHRI KRISHAN
|
BJP
|
10351
|
|
HARI NAGAR
|
JAGDEEP SINGH
|
AAP
|
SHYAM SHARMA
|
SAD
|
8876
|
|
MODEL TOWN
|
AKHILESH PATI TRIPATHI
|
AAP
|
ASHOK GOEL
|
BJP
|
7875
|
|
MALVIYA NAGAR
|
SHRI SOMNATH BHARTI
|
AAP
|
MS. ARTI MEHRA
|
BJP
|
7772
|
|
KONDLI
|
MANOJ KUMAR
|
AAP
|
DUSHYANT KUMAR GAUTAM
|
BJP
|
7490
|
|
SHAKUR BASTI
|
SATYENDER KUMAR JAIN
|
AAP
|
SHYAM LAL GARG
|
BJP
|
7062
|
|
PATEL NAGAR
|
VEENA ANAND
|
AAP
|
POORNIMA VIDYARTHI
|
BJP
|
6262
|
|
KASTURBA NAGAR
|
MADAN LAL
|
AAP
|
SHIKHA ROY
|
BJP
|
4674
|
|
TIMARPUR
|
HARISH KHANNA
|
AAP
|
RAJNI ABBI
|
BJP
|
3383
|
|
TILAK NAGAR
|
JARNAIL SINGH
|
AAP
|
RAJIV BABBER
|
BJP
|
2088
|
|
ROHINI
|
RAJESH GARG
|
AAP
|
JAI BHAGWAN AGGARWAL
|
BJP
|
1872
|
|
KAROL BAGH
|
VISHESH RAVI
|
AAP
|
SURENDER PAL RATAWAL
|
BJP
|
1750
|
|
MADIPUR
|
GIRISH SONI
|
AAP
|
KAILASH SANKLA
|
BJP
|
1103
|
|
SADAR BAZAR
|
SOM DUTT
|
AAP
|
JAI PARKASH
|
BJP
|
796
|
|
SANGAM VIHAR
|
DINESH MOHANIYA
|
AAP
|
SHIV CHARAN LAL GUPTA
|
BJP
|
777
|
|
VIKASPURI
|
MAHINDER YADAV
|
AAP
|
KRISHAN GAHLOT
|
BJP
|
405
|
|
DELHI CANTT
|
SURENDER SINGH
|
AAP
|
KARAN SINGH TANWAR
|
BJP
|
355
|
In
the following 5 constituencies, AAP was the winning party and Congress was the
trailing party. The Highest Margin is 25,864 in the New Delhi Constituency
where Arvind Kejriwal has won over Sheila Diskhit. The least margin is 1744 in
Jangpura Constituency. 3 AAP candidates have scored over 10,000 margin over
congress; one has scored over 5000 votes margin; One has scored less than 5000
Votes Margin over Congress.
Totally,
AAP has won in 28 constituencies. In case of a Re-Poll, these constituencies
may see further erosion in the votes Polled by Congress, which may go to BJP
and AAP in some proportion. Who will get the Major share of Congress votes –
depends on Modi and Kejriwal. AAP is a new party with many enthusiastic
youngsters. They have no great past –
for finger pointing. But, as time progresses, they will give more and
more room for finger-pointing. If BJP and Congress exploit this deftly, AAP’s
own Vote bank may shrink.
Congress
especially is the known expert in finger pointing – with experts like Digvijay
Singh in its fold. There is already some adverse news that one of the AAP
winning candidates entered the house of his nearest rival congress candidates
and misbehaved with ladies. This is denied by the AAP candidate. We will hear
more of it in the next few days. If even a iota of truth is established in the
allegation, in case of a re-Poll, the congress candidate will romp home with
sizeable Majority over this AAP candidate.
In
any case, efforts at finger pointing at AAP candidates is bound to continue.
The longer the time duration before Re-poll, the more will be the mistakes of
AAP candidates.
|
NEW DELHI
|
ARVIND KEJRIWAL
|
AAP
|
SHEILA DIKSHIT
|
INC
|
25864
|
|
SEEMA PURI
|
DHARMENDER SINGH
|
AAP
|
VEER SINGH DHINGAN
|
INC
|
11976
|
|
MANGOL PURI
|
RAKHI BIRLA
|
AAP
|
RAJ KUMAR CHAUHAN
|
INC
|
10585
|
|
LAXMI NAGAR
|
VINOD KUMAR BINNY
|
AAP
|
ASHOK KUMAR WALIA
|
INC
|
7752
|
|
JANGPURA
|
MANINDER SINGH DHIR
|
AAP
|
TARVINDER SINGH MARWAH
|
INC
|
1744
|
CONGRESS WINS : AN ANALYSIS :
Congress
has won totally in 8 constituencies in Delhi. In the following 6 constituencies,
Congress is the winning party and BJP is
the trailing party. The Highest Margin is 23,109 and the least is 1896. What
will happen to these 8 constituencies in case of a Re-Poll is anybody’s guess.
If the re-poll is along with Lok Sabha elections, a Modi wave may sweep these
constituencies.
|
BADLI
|
DEVENDER YADAV
|
INC
|
VIJAY KUMAR BHAGAT
|
BJP
|
23109
|
|
SEELAMPUR
|
CHAUDHARY MATEEN AHMAD
|
INC
|
KAUSHAL KUMAR MISHRA
|
BJP
|
21728
|
|
GANDHI NAGAR
|
ARVINDER SINGH LOVELY
|
INC
|
RAMESH CHAND JAIN
|
BJP
|
16961
|
|
CHANDNI CHOWK
|
PARLAD SINGH SAWHNEY
|
INC
|
SUMAN KUMAR GUPTA
|
BJP
|
8243
|
|
BALLIMARAN
|
HAROON YUSUF
|
INC
|
MOTI LAL SODHI
|
BJP
|
8093
|
|
MUSTAFABAD
|
HASAN AHMED
|
INC
|
JAGDISH PRADHAN
|
BJP
|
1896
|
Congress has scored
victory over 2 AAP candidates in 2 constituencies as below . One of them is
with slender Majority of 1112 votes. So, this could go the AAP way, in case of
a re-poll.
|
SULTANPUR MAJRA
|
JAI KISHAN
|
INC
|
SANDEEP KUMAR
|
AAP
|
1112
|
|
OKHLA
|
ASIF MOHD KHAN
|
INC
|
IRFANULLAH KHAN
|
AAP
|
26545
|
In
2 constituencies, the result is as below. One has been won by a Janata Dal
candidate of Minority community against
Congress candidate of Minority community and another by an Independent against
the BJP candidate. Who can win these in case of a Re-Poll? It depends on the
electoral strategies of Modi and Kejriwal.
|
MATIA MAHAL
|
SHOAIB IQBAL
|
Janata Dal (United)
|
MIRZA JAVED ALI
|
Indian National Congress
|
2891
|
|
MUNDKA
|
RAMBIR SHOKEEN
|
Independent
|
AZAD SINGH
|
Bharatiya Janata Party
|
7134
|
Unless
BJP and AAP evolve a common Minimum Program and agree to come together at Delhi
and Elsewhere, Re-Poll is the only alternative left. Re-Poll result is
anybody’s Guess. I strongly urge the AAP and BJP to come together. Arvind must
shed his animosity towards BJP. In case of Re-Poll, now, Delhi voters must
establish a clearer choice, as they cannot be going on having Hung assemblies
umpteen times.
So,
what could be the Game Plans BJP and AAP (Or, what should be!).
1.
BJP and AAP can
aggressively recruit members in Delhi as also in all non-BJP states like AP,
Tamilnadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Orissa and so on – for Member base
first – and then extend the support base. Depending on Sangh Parivar alone for
this would be disastrous.
2.
BJP under Modi must
present a strong secular outlook. Its recent wins are impressive in this
respect. But, it must keep the mouths of some leaders under check in resepect
of the useless slogans of Mandir and Hindutva. My strong belief is – Modi wave
did add at least 10% or more extra votes everywhere in the 4 states that went
to Polls now – and was decisive in the huge wins everywhere. It is in the hands
of BJP to project Modi more decisively – and it is up to Modi to attract all
sections of People and wipe out any non-secular image in the minds of people. A
secular Image by itself will ensure CLEAN SWEEP in next polls and can take BJP
to Power.
3.
If AAP allies with
any party anywhere in India, except one or two, its NON-CORRUPT image will get
tarnished. Probably, the best party to come nearer to, is BJP itself, which
swears by both lok-pal and striving to be Non-corrupt. Secondly, any other
Party will eventually try to dominate the AAP. AAP has no program of action to
wipe out corruption from bureaucracy at all levels. At best, it can say, its
members will be non-corrupt. But, BJP and parties like TDP have practical ways
to reduce corruption.
4.
All said, Modi, and
to some extent, Arvind Kejriwal – both offer India Great Hopes of becoming a
clean, great, developed, prosperous, healthy, United country. India has to
seize these 2 rays of Hope and dump most other corrupt, divisive parties,
retaining only the best of them, all of which must eventually merge to form 2 National
Alternatives.
PS : readers may kindly offer their views , suggestions and corrections, if any. This Blog will be grateful for the same.
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