Wednesday, December 4, 2013

EXIT POLLS- HAIL VOTER & EC - AN AGENDA FOR BJP & AAP - FOR 2014 ELECTIONS



EXIT POLLS

HAIL THE VOTER, THE ELECTION COMMISSION, MODI & ARVIND

An Agenda for 2014 FOR
BJP and AAP

The Exit Polls for Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh have given  the BJP a clean Thumbs-up. In Delhi, it is a TOSS between AAP and BJP, as to who will be the Number one and who, the number two. Congress anyway will be Number three.

MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh did have reasonably strong local leadership. But, Delhi did not have such strong leadership. Dr.Harshavardhan may have clean Image, but he is not exactly the leader who can swing votes on his own. 

In all four states, however, the Modi factor is the CLINCHER and the decisive factor. There can be no doubt what so ever about it. Without the Modi factor,  the odds were still in favour of the Congress in all states – despite reasonably good local leadership in three states in the BJP. Modi has been a Great Vote Getter in all four states. No one in these states can attract either the crowds or the Votes like Narendra Modi. That, to my mind, is a decisive, undisputable factor. 

Chouhan, Raman Singh or Vasundhara Raje could not have won – without Narendra Modi factor.

Chouhan has a clean Image but not many of his Ministers have such image. 

Raje stands in opposition – and has no track record to boast about while Congress’s Gehlot did have some reputation and could have carried the day – but for the Modi factor. 

Raman Singh had odds stacked against him – because of Naxalite factor and killings of Congress leaders. The sympathy factor could have worked for Congress – but the Modi factor swept the congress out of Public Mind in a Big way.

In all three states, it is the UPA Government at the Centre which has lost to Modi. If the negativity against UPA was half the less, and if Modi factor did not swing votes against it, the results could still be different.

In Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal showed all his leadership capabilities – and attracted the public attention in a Big way. Despite coming out of Anna’s shadow, he proved to be a tough leader and a go-getter. He deserves kudos in a Big way. But then, Modi is a Better leader , a Better crowd Puller and a more practical leader too. Arvind promised 50% cut in electricity charges – which clearly shows his impractical ways. Arvind should not assume the whole India Inc as Public enemy. It is India Inc which is giving India some Image and some progress – despite all the corruption unleashed on them by the UPA.

India Inc offers the best hope to make India Number one in the world, given a leader like Narendra Modi or Arvind Kejriwal. Therefore, Arvind Kejriwal must not be antagonizing India Inc by such  impractical statements and promises.

But, Arvind is more right tha BJP – when it comes to CORRUPTION. Arvind is the only one who displays Zero tolerance to Corruption. BJP, due to Historical reasons and having had to compete with Congress, tolerates Corruption to some extent. This attitude should change quickly. In Delhi, BJP has nominated candidates with criminal track record. This is Bad. Comparatively, Arvind has chosen cleaner candidates.

In MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgadh also, many BJP candidates are not with any great, clean record. This tolerance of Corruption and criminality will in future weigh tremendously against BJP, and in favour of AAP, if BJP has to fight the AAP. People will definitely prefer candidates with cleaner record. 

I do expect this trend to continue in all states in future. AAP will rise significantly in all states and challenge existing incumbents in every state. It should.

Unlike the past – People will come out of their offices and houses to vote against corruption and criminality and in favour of development in a Big way, in future. 9 PM and chill winds will not deter them to vote against corrupt incumbents now. They will vote even up to 12 in the Night – to install a Government of their choice. Gone are the days of the tacit voter. Hail the Indian Voter for this great maturity. We now wait for 100 percent voter turnout in many states. Hail also the Election commission for conducting the Elections in such an admirable way.

Who should be given credit for this change in Voter behavior? Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal must be given Huge credit for this at a very personal level. Both have proved as good, tough leaders who can swing votes their way. Rest of the leaders in BJP or AAP cannot do this on their own. If only BJP had selected better candidates, the result would have been much more decisive in all states.

Congress also must be given Huge Credit for this voter behavior, but in the negative way. Voters decisively wanted to vote Congress out. This much is clear.  How many mistakes and wrong doings can a Ruling Party commit? It was appalling. UPA II has been a disaster for itself and for the country.

Political Vendetta was at the TOP of its agenda, like nothing else. Whether it  was the continuous harping on 2002 riots in Gujarat, the encounter of Ishrat Jehan and other terrorists or the latest so called snoop gate – directly linking any of them with Modi and persecuting him was bad enough – to make Narendra Modi rise up like a Lion and take on Congress in a more personal way. Gujarat has prevented Terrorism like no other state could do, because it was tough with Terrorists. We need a tougher stand against terrorists in general. Because of its unsteady stand, the UPA has allowed, Naxalism to hold sway over more than one fourth of the country’s territory. Dialogue with Naxalites and making them to come to the peace table is essential. But, tougher actions are essential on whoever is unwilling to lay down arms and abjure violence.

The country needs a good, tough leader who stands for Unity and development. Modi fills the boots for all that. Someone should talk of uniting people in the developmental process. Modi does that. Gradually but surely, all including the Minorities will see the practicality and essentiality of Modi’s ways.

Arvind Kejriwal, if he allies with dubious personalities who can issue Fatwas for killing people, will bring discredit for himself and for AAP. That temptation, he should resist. A few votes from them will distance 10 times more votes from others.

UPA had hounded both Team Anna leaders and Swami Ram Dev in a clear Political Vendetta – when they were not even against Congress. They only wanted a Good, strong Lok Pal and to bring back Black Money from abroad. Their agitations were only for this limited purpose and largely apolitical at that point of time.

Slapping over 80 cases against Swami Ram Dev, while protecting corruption within UPA, was enough provocation for Swami Ram Dev to explicitly seek votes for Narendra Modi. It should be clear to BJP also, that if Modi was not the PM candidate, this groundswell of support would not have come for BJP. Swami Ram dev is an example of this. His contribution to the vote swing in favour of BJP and against Congress is also immense.

While wooing Muslim Vote, Congress was also alienating most spiritual leaders of Hinduism, through derisive comments against them. Therefore, many spiritual leaders publicly blessed Modi, indicating their preference indirectly, to their followers.

What could have gone against BJP? If Hindutva slogan was more vocal, it could have created huge aversion against BJP.  It is a meaningless slogan and should be played down. Instead, Indian nationalism (don’t call that as Hindutva) must be given primacy. Second, the Mandir agenda is another fad in the minds of certain BJP leaders. They can do nothing to build the Ram temple at the disputed site until the courts clear the issue. Till then, they must not talk of it at all. They must not be making Big Issue of a Non-issue. If anything, someone can construct the biggest Ram Temple at a non-disputed site. That will enhance India’s image too.

Modi and BJP must concentrate on development agenda and corruption issues in all other states too – leaving out these two useless issues. Modi does that all the time. But, some of the BJP leaders are still not learning from these past Mistakes.

So, what does the future hold for BJP, AAP and Congress?

To the great credit of Modi, he allowed due process of Law to take place unhindered and punish his own minister too – in a clean transparent trial in Gujarat. This is in sharp contrast to the anti-Sikh riots trials where congress leaders are involved and are yet to be punished. 

All BJP states must now focus on reducing corruption significantly in their states at all levels, political and bureaucratic – and ensure that the fruits of development reach the common man. 

If Vasundhara Raje, Chouhan and Raman Singh fail in this, 2014 could still go the Congress way, or the AAP way. Modi factor will not work if these leaders fail their people.
 
For this, BJP must draw up an agenda for each state for development and get it implemented – from day One.  BJP must not just leave it wholly to the respective CMs – but must give them targets to reach – in consultation with them. Planning for People must be goal based, plan based and must be evident and transparent. This, more than anything else, will ensure BJP’s victory in 2014 for the Parliament and assembly elections.

Arvind Kejriwal has drawn up a Plan from Grass roots level and it is transparent. That should be the way. Of course that can be bettered a lot with expert planners help – which must  co-ordinate all plans into a master plan.

Modi and Arvind must tour other states too, from now on with clear agenda for development and create BJP’s and AAP’s voter base in all states. Why a long standing Party like BJP must aim for 200, 250 seats? With Modi at the helm, BJP must Aim for 500.Why not? If you aim for the stars, you will at least reach the moon. In this process, Modi must necessarily take the help of Jaitley, Sushma swaraj and others in all states. Someone should speak in English too, in non-Hindi speaking areas. Modi also must speak in English at least in respect of important points in such states. Arvind can and will do it – and walk away with great advantage in these states. Therefore, Modi also must start doing it.

Alliances , if needed, will come before 2014 elections – but only if BJP does not dent its secular image which is being assiduously built by Narendra Modi.

Now, what of Delhi? It seems, it is a fight between AAP and BJP only. But, I strongly suggest to both to come together and govern Delhi for next 5 years. Give Delhi, clean, good governance and make it a world class city. Arvind can only talk of cleansing the corruption. But, Modi can talk of development also. He is a great planner. Arvind’s plan is Mohalla based. Modi can plan for Mohalla as well for entire city in a co-ordinated manner. Therefore, they must come together. Arvind, if he is unwilling for this, will be disappointing Delhi voters. Arvind must not be expecting Delhi voters to come again and again and vote several times, each time for a Hung Assembly at Delhi. Therefore both must come together and Govern well. For that, Both BJP and AAP should start the process right away after declaration of results. 

This election has provided the country with two good leaders. But, they must not disappoint the country now.

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